LeBron James turns 25 next Wednesday, which means one thing: He's about to get worse. Ignore his gaudy statistics, and never mind that many analysts consider him the best player on the planet. By one statistical measure, Mr. James is just a week from being over the hill.
NBA players peak at 24 years old and basically stay at that level until they turn 25, at which point they start declining, according to a study by Dave Berri, a professor of economics at Southern Utah University.
Mr. Berri's research, which examined every player from 1977-2008, says the statistical output of the average 24-year-old is equal in value to six wins per season for his team if he plays 35 minutes a night. From then on, the average player keeps getting worse each year until age 35, at which point he begins costing his team wins. Of course, not everyone fits the mold. Kobe Bryant, 31, peaked at 24 but he's still nearly as productive this season .
Mr. James seems to fit the statistical model perfectly. Last season, he played two-thirds of his games at 24 years old and he produced a career-best 27.7 wins. He's still great this year, but his production now equals a slightly more human 24.2 wins. The downfall has begun.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment